Weekly Freight Report: July 10, 2026

Eight straight weeks of falling diesel prices ended in a single day this week, as Russia banned diesel exports and US futures posted their biggest daily gain in four years. Meanwhile, CBP’s refund system crossed $71 billion in certified IEEPA refunds, with a new phase now open to reconciliation-flagged entries.

On the trade front, Section 301 hearings wrapped just two weeks before the 10% global tariff expires, the US-EU trade agreement entered into force, and a new CPSC filing mandate took effect for consumer product importers. On the water, Asia port congestion hit a four-year high while carriers stacked another round of mid-July rate increases on Asia-Europe lanes.

Dive into the full update to see what’s driving costs, tightening capacity, and reshaping your compliance checklist this week.

Russia Bans Diesel Exports, US Futures Post Biggest Daily Gain in Four Years

Russia announced a short-term ban on diesel exports Wednesday after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted roughly a quarter of its 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity. Russia supplied about 11% of the world’s seaborne diesel last year, and its June shipments had already fallen to 426,000 barrels per day, the lowest since at least 2017. US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures jumped 11.6% on the news, the biggest daily gain since March 2022, and analysts expect wholesale diesel prices to rise more than 40 cents per gallon in response. That reverses eight consecutive weeks of declines in the DOE benchmark that sets most fuel surcharges. If your freight budget assumed continued fuel relief, it’s time to revisit your surcharge exposure.

CAPE Phase 2 Goes Live as Certified IEEPA Refunds Reach $71 Billion

CBP deployed Phase 2 of its CAPE refund system on June 29, extending IEEPA refund eligibility to entries flagged for reconciliation (entry types 01, 02, and 06) where the reconciliation entry hasn’t yet been filed. As of the deployment date, roughly $71.06 billion in refunds had been certified to Treasury, with 18.1 million entries cleared through validation. But 4.36 million entries have failed CAPE’s entry-level checks, many on fixable errors like importer/filer mismatches, entry-number errors, and CSV template misalignment. Phase 3, covering finally liquidated entries worth about $11.4 billion, is expected in late July. If you have rejected filings or reconciliation deadlines inside 30 days, prioritize those now.

Section 301 Forced Labor Hearings Wrap Ahead of the July 24 Tariff Handoff

USTR held public hearings July 7 through 9 on its proposed Section 301 forced labor tariffs covering 60 economies: 10% for partners like Canada, Mexico, the EU, and the UK, and 12.5% for the remaining group including China, Vietnam, and India. The timing is deliberate, as the 10% global Section 122 surcharge expires by law on July 24 and cannot be extended without Congress. Importers used the hearings to press for product exclusions, particularly on textiles and apparel, where USTR has floated a reduced-rate quota mechanism tied to purchases of US-produced textiles and cotton. Unlike the flat surcharge it replaces, the new regime lands differently by country and product, so model your post-July 24 duty stack now.

Asia Port Congestion Climbs to a Four-Year High

Bad weather and vessel bunching pushed global port congestion to its highest level in four years, with almost 11% of the global container fleet waiting at anchorage as of June 28, according to Linerlytica. Shanghai and Ningbo are the epicenter: 156 ships sat at anchor there this week versus 87 at berth, and average wait times for vessels calling Shanghai have stretched from roughly 24 to 48 hours in late May to about 60 hours by the end of June. North Asia now accounts for 38% of global congestion, with European ports second at 13%. Build extra buffer into Asia-origin transit times and watch for downstream delays spreading into Southeast Asia.

Carriers Stack Another Round of Mid-July Increases on Asia-Europe

Fresh FAK increases land July 15, with MSC publishing $7,700 per 40ft to North Europe, up from $7,500 on July 1 and $6,000 on June 15, and CMA CGM setting $7,000 to North Europe and up to $8,500 to the East Mediterranean. HMM added a $3,000 per 40ft transpacific peak season surcharge for the same date. The increases are notably smaller than June’s jumps, one of several signs the early peak season may be nearing its apex. Carriers are also adding capacity, with MSC reinstating its Pearl service and Yang Ming and ONE running extra loaders, though analysts say it’s not enough to reverse the pricing trend yet. If your allocations are tight, the second half of July may offer better negotiating footing than the first.

CPSC Mandatory eFiling Took Effect Wednesday

As of July 8, importers of CPSC-regulated consumer products must transmit Certificate of Compliance data electronically through ACE at the time of entry, rather than producing certificates only on request. The requirement spans children’s products and general-use goods, with more than 600 HTS classifications flagged, though the underlying safety rule, not the code list, determines whether a certificate is required. Low-value and informal entries are not exempt. Incomplete or incorrect filings can trigger CBP holds, exams, rejections, and shipment delays, so confirm your certificate data and broker handoff process now if you haven’t already.

US-EU Trade Agreement Enters Into Force

The EU eliminated duties on the large majority of US-origin industrial goods as of July 1 and opened 20 tariff-rate quotas for US agricultural and seafood products, implementing its side of the trade deal reached last year. The US applies a 15% all-inclusive ceiling on most EU goods with no stacking, while steel, aluminum, and copper remain outside the deal at the 50% Section 232 rate. The EU regulation runs through December 31, 2029, and includes safeguards allowing Brussels to suspend concessions. Because dedicated preferential origin rules haven’t been adopted yet, US exporters must document origin under the EU’s standard non-preferential rules to claim the zero rate.

Weekly Freight Report: July 10, 2026

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