Weekly Freight Report: July 3, 2026

The USMCA hit its six-year review on Wednesday and came out the other side unrenewed. The agreement stays in force, but North American trade now enters an annual negotiation cycle, and it lands just three weeks before the 10% global tariff expires with a new tariff regime waiting in the wings.

Meanwhile, the cost picture is pulling in two directions. Transpacific ocean rates have blown past last year’s peak season highs and truckload spot rates are running well above 2025 levels, but diesel just logged its eighth straight weekly decline, giving shippers some relief on fuel surcharges.

Dive into the full update to see what’s shifting on trade policy, what’s driving rates higher, and where costs are finally easing.

US Declines to Renew USMCA at Joint Review

At the required six-year joint review on July 1, the United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form, so the agreement was not renewed. The deal remains in force, and USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico continue to move tariff-free, but the three countries now move into annual reviews that run until either a renewal is reached or the agreement expires in 2036. Intraregional trade surpassed $1.6 trillion in 2024, and the US has flagged automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security as priority issues. A third round of talks with Mexico is scheduled for the week of July 20 in Mexico City. For shippers with North American exposure, nothing changes at the border today, but every rule underpinning cross-border sourcing is now on the table.

Section 122 Tariff Expires July 24, and Its Replacement Is Taking Shape

The 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 lapses at 12:01 a.m. on July 24, and USTR is moving to have Section 301 forced-labor duties ready to replace it the same week. The proposal covers 60 economies representing roughly 99% of US import value, with a 10% rate for 14 economies including Canada, Mexico, the EU, and the UK, and 12.5% for the remaining 46 including China, Vietnam, India, and Japan. USMCA-qualifying goods, Section 232 products, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals are exempt. Public comments are due July 6 with a hearing set for July 7. Importers timing shipments around the July 24 sunset should note the new duties could stack on top of existing tariffs, meaning some could pay more after the expiration, not less.

Truckload Spot Rates Expected to Run 20-25% Above 2025 Through Year-End

Uber Freight’s Q2 market update found truckload spot volumes jumped 44% within its network during the quarter, and the company now expects spot rates to run 20% to 25% above prior-year levels for the rest of 2026. Peak-season behavior is showing up before demand has fully ramped, with rising fuel costs, an unusually early produce season, and tightening capacity converging at once. Routing guide failures are up significantly as shippers exhaust their preferred contract carriers and freight spills into the spot market, where rates already exceed contract rates in many lanes. If your contracts were priced earlier this year, expect repricing conversations in the second half.

Transpacific Ocean Rates Climb to Highest Level Since 2024

Drewry’s World Container Index jumped 5% to $4,166 per 40-foot container this week, its highest level since September 2024, driven by strength on the transpacific. Shanghai to New York spot rates rose 6% to $7,149 per FEU, while Shanghai to Los Angeles climbed 12% to $5,750. Only four blank sailings have been announced on the transpacific for the coming week, reflecting tight capacity as importers frontload ahead of potential tariff changes and higher bunker costs. With GRIs and peak season surcharges expected to hit in July, Drewry anticipates further increases in the coming weeks. Book as far in advance as possible and budget for surcharge exposure through the summer.

Benchmark Diesel Price Falls for Eighth Straight Week

The DOE/EIA average retail diesel price, the basis for most fuel surcharges, fell 16.4 cents this week to $4.668 per gallon. The benchmark is now down 97.2 cents from its May 4 peak of $5.64, as oil prices continue to slide on the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That translates into real fuel surcharge relief across truckload and LTL lanes. Analysts caution the decline shouldn’t be read as the end of the war-driven price era, with some warning that sustained inventory draws could tighten supply again in the coming weeks.

EU Ends De Minimis Duty Exemption for Low-Value Imports

Effective July 1, the EU abolished the customs duty exemption for consignments valued at 150 euros or less, replacing it with a temporary flat 3 euro customs duty per item that runs until July 2028, when normal product-specific duties take over. A separate handling fee to cover customs processing costs is expected later this year, and mandatory product identifiers arrive November 1 to help customs authorities screen shipments. The reform is part of the EU’s broader customs overhaul, driven by billions of low-value e-commerce parcels entering the bloc annually. If you ship low-value goods into the EU, confirm your customs data is complete and build extra time into July deliveries as the new process shakes out.

NRF Forecasts Early Import Peak in June, Declines Through Fall

The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker forecasts June import volume at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year, as retailers pull peak season cargo forward to get ahead of rising shipping costs and potential replacement tariffs. The surge likely lasts into July at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year, before volumes weaken further: August is forecast down 8.6% and September down 2.2%. Hackett Associates describes an early peak season that looks more like sustained elevated volume than a sharp spike, with softness ahead as consumer uncertainty and inflation take their toll. If you’re timing bookings against rate pressure, the frontloading now means softer demand later this summer.

Weekly Freight Report: July 3, 2026

Related Posts