Weekly Freight Report: May 15, 2026

Refund money is finally moving. CBP cleared $35.5 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds through the new CAPE portal in just over three weeks, with 87,000 declarations validated and payments now flowing to importers. The pace matters because the full pool is roughly $166 billion. Meanwhile, the status of Trump’s 10% global tariff under Section 122 swung twice in five days. A trade court struck it down on May 7, and a federal appeals court paused that ruling on May 12, putting the 10% surcharge back in place pending appeal.

In Beijing, Presidents Trump and Xi are meeting this week to extend last October’s tariff truce and reset a trade relationship where the average US tariff on Chinese imports still sits near 48%. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is moving in two directions at once. Washington and Beijing have aligned publicly against Iranian shipping tolls, while Iran has quietly widened the zone it defines as the Strait, expanding the area where its forces may board, inspect, or strike commercial traffic.

Dive into the full update to see what these developments mean for refund timing, China sourcing, and Middle East routing decisions this quarter.

CBP Clears First $35.5 Billion in Tariff Refunds Through CAPE Portal

The Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system has validated 87,000 of the 126,000 declarations received since launching April 20, clearing $35.5 billion of the roughly $166 billion in IEEPA duties the Supreme Court struck down in February. More than 8.3 million entries have been reprocessed to remove IEEPA charges so far. The bottleneck moving forward: 1,880 consolidated refunds are sitting at the gate because importers have not yet provided bank account information to Treasury. If you paid IEEPA tariffs and have not submitted banking details, your refund is on hold for paperwork reasons, not policy ones.

US Appeals Court Pauses Ruling Against Trump's 10% Global Tariff

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an administrative stay on Tuesday, May 12, halting a May 7 trade court ruling that struck down Trump’s 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The pause keeps the surcharge in place for now, including for the three importers (two businesses and Washington state) that had won relief last week. Section 122 caps the tariff at 150 days, meaning it expires July 24 unless Congress extends it. A 24-state coalition is challenging the tariff as an abuse of executive power. Importers should not assume the 10% surcharge is going anywhere before the appeals process runs its course.

US and China Seek to Repair Damage from Tariff War in Beijing Summit

Presidents Trump and Xi are meeting in Beijing this week with a modest agenda: extend the October trade truce, advance Chinese purchases of American soybeans, beef, and Boeing aircraft, and tee up a new Board of Trade. The backdrop is sobering. The average US tariff on Chinese imports is still near 48%, down from triple-digit peaks but well above the 3.1% level in 2018. China’s share of US trade has fallen from over 13% in 2016 to 6.4% last year, with Mexico and Canada now ranked as America’s top two trading partners. US soybean exports to China dropped 75% in 2025. The summit signals stability rather than reversal. Plan procurement and sourcing strategies accordingly.

Iran Widens the Zone It Defines as the Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps expanded the maritime control area it considers part of the Strait of Hormuz, stretching the claimed zone into the Gulf of Oman. The change creates a larger area where Iranian forces may stop, inspect, or attack vessels, and where the country’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority can demand permits and tolls. On May 11, Iran’s foreign ministry called the latest US ceasefire proposal “unreasonable,” and Trump called Iran’s terms “totally unacceptable.” Carriers routing near the Gulf now have to reassess waters previously considered safe, on top of existing Cape of Good Hope diversions.

US and China Align Publicly Against Hormuz Shipping Tolls

Senior officials from Washington and Beijing have agreed that no country should be permitted to charge transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the State Department. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the issue in an April call, and the strait is expected to feature in this week’s Trump-Xi summit. Before the conflict, the strait handled roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. The US and Bahrain are circulating a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iranian tolls and mining, though Russia and China previously vetoed a similar measure. Diplomatic pressure is building, but operational reality on the water has not changed.

Bank of Canada Flags 28% Drop in Canadian Maritime Trade Capacity

A new Bank of Canada study finds that total deadweight tonnage moving through Canadian ports fell from 167 million metric tons in 2016 to 119 million metric tons in 2023, a 28% decline in maritime trade capacity. All five of Canada’s largest ports lost relative connectivity over that period, while East Asia now holds 8 of the 10 most-connected ports in the world, up from 6. The structural shift means more North American cargo is moving through indirect routes and foreign transshipment hubs, lengthening transit times and adding logistics complexity. For shippers using Canadian gateways or Pacific Northwest routings, the long view points to more dependence on Asian hubs and less direct service.

Weekly Freight Report: May 15, 2026

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