Weekly Freight Report: May 1, 2026

The May 1 trans-Pacific contract deadline is this week, and Iran-driven fuel volatility is reshaping every term. Bunker prices have doubled at some major hubs since the war began. Chinese authorities are pushing back on emergency surcharges, and the Federal Maritime Commission has already blocked several carrier surcharge attempts.

But that’s just one deadline. The first IEEPA tariff refunds are expected around May 11, with up to $166 billion recoverable across 330,000 importers. Trump told reporters the Iranian port blockade could last “months.” Brent crude surged 13% in 24 hours. The Fed held rates steady with four dissents, and the administration is now racing to replace its IEEPA tariffs before Section 122’s July 24 expiration.

Dive into the full update to see what’s moving freight rates, refund timelines, and trade policy this week.

Fuel Charges Complicate Rush to Ink New Trans-Pacific Service Contracts

The May 1 deadline for 2026-27 trans-Pacific service contracts is here, and Iran-driven fuel volatility is reshaping how carriers and shippers price cargo. Bunker fuel prices have doubled at some major hubs since the war began on February 28, and Brent crude is trading near $114 per barrel. Carriers including MSC, CMA CGM, Ocean Network Express, and Maersk have moved to add emergency fuel surcharges and push for monthly rather than quarterly BAF adjustments. The Federal Maritime Commission has declined several carrier surcharge requests in recent weeks, giving small and midsize shippers some short-term protection. Resistance from Chinese authorities to emergency surcharges is also slowing carriers’ ability to fully recover costs, and Q3 BAF charges are expected to climb sharply if elevated fuel prices persist.

First Trump Tariff Refunds Expected About May 11

Customs and Border Protection told the Court of International Trade that the first IEEPA tariff refunds will issue “on or about” May 11 through its new CAPE portal. About 21% of affected entries have been accepted into the refund process so far, and roughly 3% have been liquidated and are awaiting Treasury payouts. The full refund process could cover $166 billion in duties paid by more than 330,000 importers across 53 million entries, after the Supreme Court’s February ruling struck down the IEEPA tariffs. As of April 26, about 1.74 million entries had been liquidated and were moving through repayment. Roughly 19% of submitted entries have been rejected over filing errors, and importers should expect 60 to 90 days from acceptance to refund deposit.

Iranian Ports Could Be Blockaded for "Months," Says Trump

Trump signaled this week that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue for months, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth describing the operation as “iron-clad” and lasting “as long as it takes.” Brent crude futures surged more than 13% in 24 hours to April 29, hitting their highest level since the war began on February 28 and approaching peaks last seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Iranian oil and condensate loadings have collapsed from 2.1 million barrels per day before the blockade to about 567,000 bpd after, according to ship tracking data. Strait of Hormuz traffic has dropped to roughly seven vessels per day, almost entirely through Iranian-controlled corridors. With the war stretching into its third month, shippers and carriers are now pricing longer-running fuel cost assumptions into rates and contracts.

Trump Pursues New Import Taxes to Replace IEEPA Tariffs

The administration is moving fast to replace the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February with new measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The current 10% Section 122 tariff that bridged the gap expires on July 24, leaving a hard deadline to land Section 301 findings and new tariffs. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is running two simultaneous probes: one into 60 economies covering 99% of U.S. imports for forced labor practices, and another into 16 trading partners for excess capacity and dumping. Section 301 carries no statutory cap on tariff rates and no expiration date once enacted, unlike Section 122. Importers should expect new tariffs that approximate the old IEEPA rates but with stronger legal footing.

Mexico to Require Federal Projects to Use Local Steel in Response to U.S. Tariffs

President Claudia Sheinbaum signed a steel procurement pact this week requiring all Mexican federal projects to use domestically produced steel, after talks to lift U.S. steel tariffs failed. The agreement unites 19 federal agencies, including Pemex and CFE, with three industry chambers to back roughly 90,000 jobs and over $8 billion in investment. Mexico’s public sector has committed 150,000 tonnes of reinforcing steel, 150,000 tonnes of structural steel, and over one million tonnes for railway projects in 2026. The move comes after USTR Greer told Mexican auto and steel industries that the USMCA renegotiation will not lift the 50% Section 232 tariffs. Shippers and traders relying on cross-border steel flows should expect a slower, more domestic-favoring procurement environment in Mexico.

Fed Holds Main Rate Steady, Notes Risks to Jobs and Inflation From Iran War

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% this week, marking the third consecutive meeting without a cut amid Iran-driven inflation concerns. The decision came with four dissents, the most since October 1992, and the FOMC explicitly flagged the recent rise in global energy prices as an inflation driver. Powell described the U.S. economy as “solid” and said the labor market is not currently a source of inflation, but acknowledged the war’s effects “haven’t even peaked yet.” Markets are now pricing no further cuts through 2026, with a small subset pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. Fixed mortgage rates have climbed alongside the uncertainty, with the 30-year average rising to 6.38% from 5.99% in late February.

GDP Grows 2% in Q1, Recovering From Federal Shutdown

U.S. GDP expanded at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter, rebounding from a 0.5% pace in the final quarter of 2025 that was dragged down by the 43-day federal government shutdown. Federal government spending and investment grew at a 9.3% annual rate in Q1, contributing more than half a percentage point to growth. Consumer spending growth slowed to 1.6%, but business investment surged 8.7%, driven largely by AI-related capex. Imports jumped 21.4% on the quarter, subtracting more than 2.6 percentage points from headline GDP as importers pulled forward shipments before further tariff and fuel disruption. The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are clouding the outlook for Q2 freight demand.

Weekly Freight Report: May 1, 2026

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