After months of tariff-driven uncertainty, global trade is starting to find its footing. The recent announcement of a framework between the U.S. and China to resolve key trade disputes has brought a measure of calm to the global market. The agreement touches on sensitive areas like technology and mineral exports, and while many of the details are still unclear, the shift in tone has been notable. That said, the lingering impact of past tensions continues to shape the flow of goods. A U.S. court decision to uphold the Trump-era tariffs means that elevated duties remain in effect, adding cost pressure for importers. At the ports, particularly on the West Coast, import volumes have seen significant declines.
At the same time, Chinese exporters are shifting more production to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia in an effort to reduce exposure to U.S. tariffs. On the ocean side, global containership capacity is stretched thin, with demand pushing utilization close to its limits. Trans-Pacific rates have already doubled as importers move quickly to secure space ahead of peak season. Inland, the picture isn’t much easier. Trucking capacity is expected to tighten in the second half of the year, with major carriers citing economic strain and reduced fleet sizes. Overall, while the trade policy outlook may be settling, operational stress points across the supply chain continue to demand close attention.
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