March 12th, 2026
Trump Launches Section 301 Investigations to Replace IEEPA Tariffs
The Trump administration announced new Section 301 trade investigations targeting China, Mexico, the EU, and 13+ other economies after IEEPA tariffs were struck down. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 has survived legal scrutiny before — meaning new duties could stick. Begin scenario planning now; new import costs across a wide range of goods could land within months.
CBP Says It Cannot Immediately Refund $166B in Tariffs
CBP told the Court of International Trade it lacks the capacity to immediately refund the $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs collected under now-invalidated authority. Importers who paid these duties are in limbo with no clear timeline. If your business paid reciprocal tariffs in 2025 or early 2026, work with your customs broker now to document your exposure and understand your options.
Rising Fuel Costs Are Coming for Your Freight Bills
The U.S.-Iran conflict is driving diesel and jet fuel sharply higher. Michigan State’s Jason Miller warns the diesel spike will “meaningfully affect shippers’ freight bills,” with the full impact expected to hit contract negotiations in Q2. Importers using air freight and exporters on domestic trucking lanes should budget for near-term cost pressure and review fuel surcharge clauses now.
Container Rates Ticking Up as Asian Exports Recover — Hormuz Adds a Wildcard
Post-Lunar New Year cargo volumes are recovering out of Asia, putting upward pressure on spot rates just as Hormuz uncertainty enters the picture. Drewry warns disruptions could add fuel surcharges, war-risk insurance premiums, and rerouting penalties on top. Trans-Pacific importers with spot exposure should monitor rate forecasts closely over the next 30 days.
ITS Logistics Index: Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Disrupting a Stabilizing Market
ITS Logistics’ March index finds that stabilizing import behavior is now under fresh pressure from geopolitical disruptions, escalating cargo theft, and shifting tariff policy. Port and rail ramp flows could shift materially if Hormuz tensions persist or new Section 301 duties trigger another front-loading wave. Importers on intermodal should stay close to their providers on capacity.
2026 Freight Outlook: Capacity Is Tightening Faster Than Budgets Assumed
The freight market is transitioning from oversupply to policy-driven capacity constraints — 25% tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks are inflating equipment costs and slowing fleet expansion. Shippers who budgeted 2026 around soft rates may need to revise assumptions. Worth reading before finalizing your tender strategy.
