Weekly Freight Report: January 2, 2026

This week kicks off 2026 with signs of a freight market inflection point amid mixed signals. Trucking capacity is finally tightening after years of oversupply, but rate increases remain gradual. Meanwhile, shippers are gaining leverage in ocean contract negotiations, ports are racing to expand capacity, and tariffs look set to remain elevated through the year ahead.

From a historic railroad merger that could reshape domestic freight to warehousing vacancies hitting decade highs, here’s what’s driving the freight landscape as we enter the new year.

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Signs Point Upward for Trucking, but Freight Rates Remain Stubbornly Sluggish Going Into 2026

Capacity is finally tightening as Class 8 truck sales plummeted 36.5% year-over-year in November and 13,700 trucking jobs were lost in the last quarter. Spot rates are inching upward, but analysts warn the recovery will be gradual rather than dramatic.

UP-NS Deal Could Benefit Some Shippers, While Others Face Longer Transits

Union Pacific’s proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern would create America’s first transcontinental railroad. While some shippers could see faster service and eliminated interchange delays, others may experience service degradation depending on their location.

US East, Gulf Coast Ports Expanding Intermodal Access, Vessel Capacity

East and Gulf Coast ports are pushing ahead with major infrastructure investments to handle larger vessels and compete for discretionary cargo headed inland. Intermodal expansions and channel deepening projects are reshaping the competitive landscape

US Tariff Rate Hits 15% in 2025, Seen Holding Through 2026

The average US tariff rate has surged from 2.5% to over 15% in less than a year—the highest level in more than 80 years. Analysts expect rates to hold near current levels throughout 2026 with limited opportunities for de-escalation.

Shippers to Regain Leverage in Trans-Pacific Contract Negotiations

With global container capacity outpacing demand and spot rates sitting below long-term contract levels, shippers are entering 2026 negotiations with strengthened bargaining power. Experts advise focusing on service terms, surcharge protections, and rate review clauses.

Warehousing Vacancies Hit New Peak, but Larger Facilities Still Needed

US industrial vacancy rates have climbed to 7.6%—exceeding pre-pandemic averages—yet demand for large-format logistics facilities continues. The market is expected to peak near 7.8% in 2026 before stabilizing as tariff uncertainty eases and shippers commit to longer-term plans

Maersk Waives 'Disruption Surcharge' for Red Sea Sailing on India-USEC Trade

Maersk has removed its disruption surcharge for cargo moving between India and the US East Coast, providing cost relief as the carrier takes initial steps toward resuming Red Sea transits. The move signals a potential shift toward cost normalization on this key trade corridor.

Weekly Freight Report: January 2, 2026

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