Weekly Freight Report: December 12, 2025

This week’s freight landscape is marked by significant global trade realignments, from Mexico imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods to container shipping facing a structural overcapacity crisis spreading to secondary lanes. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates again but signaled a cautious path forward with just one cut expected in 2026.

As trade policy uncertainty intensifies and carrier profitability remains under pressure, shippers need to stay informed and agile in their logistics planning.

Dive into the full update to see what’s reshaping global trade lanes, impacting costs, and influencing your supply chain decisions.

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Cascading Container Tonnage Spreads Structural Overcapacity to Secondary Lanes

New analysis shows excess container capacity is systematically shifting from primary East-West routes to secondary trade lanes. As megaships saturate main corridors like Asia-Europe, smaller regional routes are absorbing displaced tonnage—while facing a looming shortage of mid-size vessels.

China's Trade Surplus Hits $1 Trillion Despite U.S. Tariffs

Despite punishing U.S. tariffs, China achieved a record $1 trillion trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025. Chinese exporters have successfully diversified to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, with exports to those regions up significantly while U.S.-bound shipments plunged 18%.

US to Impose 15% Tariff on Nicaragua for Human Rights Concerns

The U.S. will impose phased-in tariffs on Nicaraguan goods, reaching 15% by 2028, following a Section 301 investigation into labor and human rights abuses. The tariffs stack on existing 18% reciprocal duties and could affect imports of apparel, gold, and agricultural products.

Mexico Announces up to 50% Tariffs on China, Others

Mexican lawmakers approved tariffs of up to 50% on more than 1,400 products from China and other Asian nations without trade agreements. The levies take effect January 1, 2026, and target autos, metals, clothing, and appliances—aligning Mexico more closely with U.S. trade policy toward China.

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks to Smallest Since 2020

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed nearly 11% in September to $52.8 billion—its smallest since mid-2020. Exports surged 3% to near-record levels, driven by non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical preparations, while imports rose a more modest 0.6%.

ACT: Uncertainty Still Plaguing Freight Outlook

ACT Research reports that uncertainty and headwinds continue to weigh heavily on the 2026 freight outlook. Tariff-driven equipment cost increases, recessionary carrier profitability, and a post-pull-forward freight air pocket are creating significant demand headwinds for the trucking industry.

Fed Trims Main Rate by Quarter-Point, Forecasts One Cut in 2026

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote. Fed officials project just one additional rate cut in 2026, citing persistent inflation and a softening job market. Chair Powell called it a “challenging situation” with the economy performing well but inflation remaining above target.

Weekly Freight Report: December 12, 2025

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