Peak season 2025 is arriving just as domestic trucking hits new pressure points. Smaller fleets are exiting, investment is slowing, and new truck orders are down 40% year-over-year. Carrier employment has declined for two straight years. Regional lanes are seeing more coverage gaps, and operating costs keep rising.
At the same time, contracts aren’t keeping up with the market. Most rates remain flat, spot pricing shifts week to week, and margins are tightening across the board. Trade policy shifts and seasonal freight surges are also disrupting planning. You might be pulling orders forward, while others hold back, hoping the market holds steady.
This guide breaks down what’s changing in domestic trucking, what to watch in the coming weeks, and how to keep freight covered through Q4 2025.
4 Factors Impacting the 2025 Peak Domestic Trucking Season
The U.S. trucking landscape is shifting in ways that aren’t always visible on the surface. Rates might look stable. Freight is still moving. But under the hood, the system is straining as carriers cut back, labor tightens, and costs creep up lane by lane. What looks quiet today could flip fast if pressure builds.
If you’re managing domestic freight for the 2025 peak season, now is the time to focus. The trends below are already shaping how freight is covered and what it will cost to keep it moving.
1. Short-haul strain signals rising service risk
Carrier exits are quietly reshaping domestic trucking capacity, especially in short-haul and regional lanes. These fleets once acted as shock absorbers in volatile markets, but with rates flat and operating costs still climbing, many are pulling back or exiting entirely. The impact isn’t yet in rates. It’s showing up in slower tender responses, shrinking spot options, and coverage gaps where flexibility used to be. For peak season, the risk is service failure.
Key impacts:
- Short-haul lanes increasingly underserved by independent operators
- Spot market coverage is thinning in secondary and regional lanes
- Risk of delayed pickups and slower tender acceptance on tight timelines
How to get ahead:
- Evaluate reliance on single-carrier or short-term lane coverage
- Lock in dedicated or rolling capacity agreements on high-volume lanes
- Monitor live tender performance and carrier scorecards weekly
- Build a tiered routing guide with pre-qualified backup carriers by lane
2. Rising costs are squeezing carriers (but not yet spiking rates)
Carrier operating costs continue to rise, even as rates remain mostly stable. In 2024, the average cost per mile hit $2.26 (barely down from 2023) with non-fuel marginal costs rising 3.6% year-over-year to a record $1.779/mile. Key inputs like driver wages, insurance, and repairs are all seeing inflationary pressure:
- Driver wages: +7.6% YoY
- Maintenance & repair: +3.1% YoY
- Insurance premiums: +12.5% YoY
- Congestion-related losses: $100B+/year in wasted time and fuel
Spot rates rose 6.5% year-over-year in Q2, but dipped slightly quarter-over-quarter, indicating that carriers are still not entirely passing rising costs downstream. Contract rates are up just 1.1% year-over-year, further squeezing margins as peak season approaches. Rates may not be surging yet, but the pressure is building. If demand tightens in Q4, carriers won’t absorb those costs quietly, and shippers relying on fixed budgets or long-term contracts could be caught off guard by mid-cycle adjustments.
Key impacts:
- Thinner margins make carriers more selective about tenders and commitments
- Higher likelihood of mid-contract surcharges on volatile lanes
- Increased difficulty forecasting and budgeting transportation costs
How to get ahead:
- Plan for selective rate adjustments in your most cost-sensitive lanes
- Review underperforming contracts for early renegotiation opportunities
- Use lane-level benchmarks to identify where cost pressure is mounting
- Implement quarterly procurement reviews to stay aligned with real-time market shifts
3. Labor shortages and ELP mandate are shrinking driver capacity
A new federal rule on English proficiency is expected to sideline thousands of drivers, especially immigrant and cross-border operators. This comes on top of an already shrinking driver base. This regulatory shift is amplifying existing labor shortages, reducing flexibility in time-sensitive lanes.
Key impacts:
- Reduced driver pool, especially in cross-border and regional lanes
- More variability in service levels and lead time reliability
- Potential rise in missed pickups and accessorials
How to get ahead:
- Build longer lead times into both planning and booking
- Use carrier scorecards to monitor late tenders, dwell, and missed pickups
- Increase buffer inventory in markets with known driver shortages
- Identify lanes where driver consistency is critical and secure dedicated
4. Tariff uncertainty is disrupting demand timing
Domestic freight demand has become increasingly difficult to predict due to tariff volatility. You may have front-loaded freight in Q2 to beat deadlines, or completely paused orders to wait out policy changes. These shifts created ripple effects that are now showing up in how freight is moving across domestic networks.
Key impacts:
- Freight volumes moving early or late depending on tariff exposure
- Short-term pressure on outbound lanes tied to perishables and retail
- Regional spot rate volatility across August
How to get ahead:
- Revisit seasonal forecasts to reflect front-loaded or delayed volumes
- Partner with brokers who can provide real-time capacity shifts by region
- Add buffer capacity or backup routing guides for tariff-sensitive lanes
- Track policy announcements weekly to adjust tenders in near real time
Cross-Border Complexities: Canada & Mexico
North American cross-border freight is entering Q4 with a tangle of labor, regulatory, and demand pressures. Mexico lanes are tightening, Canada volumes are cooling, and tariffs are throwing new volatility into the mix. Inspections and compliance requirements are slowing crossings, while labor and equipment constraints are already limiting options.
You can’t treat northbound and southbound cross-border lanes the same way you handle domestic freight—the risks and pressure points are too different. Four areas stand out this season:
1. Diesel phaseouts and rising costs are reshaping cross-border freight rates
Mexican fleets are facing higher costs as diesel subsidies phase out and investment in equipment slows. On top of that, peso-dollar fluctuations are making cross-border settlements unpredictable. These financial swings are creeping into rate negotiations.
Key impacts:
- Sudden shifts in peso-dollar exchange rates altering rate structures
- Carriers applying cross-border surcharges mid-contract
- Margin erosion when currency swings aren’t accounted for
How to get ahead:
- Include currency adjustment clauses in carrier agreements for Mexico lanes
- Benchmark surcharges monthly instead of annually to catch creep early
- Keep a reserve budget line specifically for cross-border volatility
2. Tighter border inspections and rising theft risk are slowing crossings
Tighter inspections and stepped-up enforcement are slowing major crossings, especially through Laredo and El Paso. At the same time, theft risk is up in border staging zones, where freight often sits exposed. If you’re moving high-value or time-sensitive freight, you can’t assume border transit will go according to plan.
Key impacts:
- Delays of several hours at congested crossings
- Increased theft risk in unsecured yards and waiting areas
- Added strain on drivers from inspection and compliance delays
How to get ahead:
- Pre-clear shipments with carriers who have C-TPAT or FAST certification
- Build secure drop yards or partner with facilities that have monitored storage
- Add 24–48 hours of buffer into transit planning for high-risk lanes
- Review and update cargo insurance policies to reflect theft risk near border crossings
3. Trade imbalance drives northbound capacity crunch in peak cross-border freight
While southbound Mexico lanes may see occasional disruption from seasonal driver availability or fleet exits, the broader pressure this peak season is coming from the northbound side. In 2025, U.S.-bound freight continues to outpace southbound by nearly 3 to 1.
To balance networks, carriers are actively incentivizing southbound moves, which means northbound lanes are where capacity gets tight first, especially as U.S. importers rush to move holiday goods into warehouses. Supply chain planners face their biggest risk on northbound lanes, where capacity tightens just as timing matters most.
Key impacts:
- Northbound lanes face greater risk of capacity shortages as holiday imports spike
- Southbound capacity remains available in most corridors as carriers seek balanced loads
- Rolled or missed shipments are more common on northbound contract lanes as networks stretch thin
How to get ahead:
- Lock in northbound capacity early for Q4; stage buffer inventory near key border crossings
- Diversify your carrier base in both directions, with a focus on expedited northbound coverage
- Monitor bid-ask spreads and lane-level rate shifts to reallocate coverage before bottlenecks hit
4. Tariff swings are destabilizing Mexico and Canada cross-border lanes
Tariffs are now a direct operational risk in cross-border trucking. As of August 1, 2025, the U.S. increased tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%, slowing freight flows and cutting U.S.–Canada truck trade by nearly 10% year-over-year. On the Mexican side, a 17% tariff on Mexican tomato imports, introduced in July, triggered a spike in expedited food shipments. These policy shifts are pulling trucks away from contract freight and distorting capacity across food, auto, and retail lanes.
Key impacts:
- U.S.–Canada volumes are softening as tariffs drive delays and reduced demand
- Tariff-driven surges are disrupting network balance and spiking spot rates in key corridors
- Carriers are prioritizing premium freight tied to new tariffs, leaving general freight exposed
How to get ahead:
- Separate your Canada and Mexico lane strategies — they’re moving in different directions
- Track tariff and policy updates weekly; adjust tenders and lead times as needed
- Stage buffer inventory near key crossings for tariff-sensitive freight to offset capacity swings
Strategic Responses For Peak Season Logistics 2025
This year’s supply chain peak season is testing every corner of domestic trucking and cross border trucking networks. Success in this market depends on proactive planning with flexible coverage, strong carrier relationships, and real-time visibility. The following strategies help freight teams strengthen control and reduce risk during this volatile supply chain peak season.
1. Build layered contracts with trigger points
Traditional 12-month contracts are already outdated. In volatile lanes, especially cross-border and regional short-haul, carriers are adding mid-cycle surcharges regardless. Protect your network by structuring contracts with automatic review clauses tied to market indexes or fuel/currency swings.
- Define thresholds (e.g., ±7% vs DAT or SONAR index) that trigger rate resets without full renegotiation
- Insert currency adjustment factors (CAF) in Mexico lanes to prevent peso-dollar shocks from hitting your budget
- Blend core carriers with “swing capacity” agreements, giving you a 10–15% buffer that can flex up without last-minute spot exposure
Pro tip: Negotiate quarterly procurement reviews instead of waiting for annual rebids, the strongest shippers are already doing this.
2. Prioritize lane-by-lane risk scoring
Capacity risk in 2025 is uneven. A Chicago–Dallas truckload does not behave the same way as Laredo–Monterrey. Build a lane-level risk heatmap that scores each corridor by volatility (driver shortages, border wait times, seasonal exposure).
- Flag southbound Mexico lanes where vacation cycles and fleet exits are already tightening supply
- Assign “service sensitivity” scores to just-in-time manufacturing hubs (automotive, CPG, perishables)
- Use carrier scorecards to track slippage in real time (missed tenders, dwell creep, rollovers) and reallocate before failures cascade
Pro tip: Integrate spot market indexes into your scorecard, not just tender acceptance. Spot pricing tells you where risk is already leaking in.
3. Engineer buffer capacity where it matters
A flat 10% buffer across the network wastes money. Instead, engineer surgical buffers only in lanes most exposed to volatility.
- Pre-book 2–3 days of buffer inventory near high-risk crossings (Laredo, El Paso)
- Stage expedited fallback options with vetted partners for tariff-sensitive or food-grade freight
- Negotiate “hot load” premiums upfront with select carriers, so you’re not paying inflated ad-hoc spot rates when a truck falls through
Pro tip: Pair buffer capacity with dynamic tender routing guides, route 70% to primary carriers, 20% to strategic backups, 10% to flexible brokered capacity.
4. Flex mode and routing — with precision
Flexibility is not just “use intermodal.” It’s about knowing when and where to deploy alternatives without blowing up service.
- Shift retail and non-time-sensitive freight to intermodal in corridors >600 miles during August–October
- Use off-peak delivery slots to bypass congestion at ports and DCs (particularly SoCal and Atlanta hubs)
- Reroute cross-border through secondary gateways (Eagle Pass, Pharr, Otay Mesa) to avoid Laredo gridlock during produce or inspection surges
Pro tip: Don’t abandon truckload in tight markets, blend in alternative capacity at the edges to free up primary lanes.
5. Leverage tech for predictive coverage, not just visibility
Visibility alone is table stakes. What separates best-in-class teams in 2025 is the ability to predict failures before they hit.
- Use predictive analytics to model rate volatility at the lane level and adjust contract allocations dynamically
- Deploy digital tendering to shave hours off urgent coverage, cutting down on rollovers and late dispatches
- Monitor real-time border crossing delays and integrate them into ETAs for time-sensitive loads
Pro tip: Visibility isn’t enough unless it’s actionable. Integrate your TMS alerts directly with procurement decisions, not just load tracking.
Conclusion: Navigating Peak 2025 With Resilience
The 2025 supply chain peak season is exposing just how fragile domestic trucking and cross border trucking capacity have become. Rates aren’t spiking yet, but the underlying pressures are real—carriers are exiting, costs are climbing, and cross-border freight is pulling capacity out of balance. Operationalize flexibility, not just in contracts, but in execution, to emerge with fewer service disruptions and tighter cost control.
Next steps to stay resilient:
- Revisit forecasts weekly and adjust procurement strategies in real time
- Lock in commitments on critical lanes before volatility hits
- Expand your carrier mix to reduce exposure in tight markets
- Add technology-driven visibility to strengthen planning and execution
Kesco Logistics works closely with shippers, navigating these same pressures every day. If your network is feeling the squeeze, let’s build a plan together to keep freight moving this peak season and beyond. Need help navigating freight this peak season? Get a quote on your lanes today.
FAQs
- What is the outlook for cross border trucking in 2025?
Cross border trucking between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is entering peak season under pressure. Mexico lanes are tightening due to tariffs and labor shortages, while Canada volumes are cooling. Shippers should plan for surcharges, longer inspection times, and short-term demand surges that can pull capacity away from domestic trucking. - How will rising trucking logistics costs affect shippers in peak season 2025?
Operating costs—including labor, insurance, and maintenance—are climbing, and carriers are passing those costs downstream. Shippers should expect more mid-contract adjustments and surcharges, and should build flexible budgets to absorb transportation volatility. - Why is domestic trucking capacity so unpredictable right now?
Carrier attrition, seasonal surges, and regulatory changes are shrinking the available truck pool. Smaller fleets are exiting lanes, while larger carriers are selective about commitments. For shippers, this means spot coverage is unreliable and capacity can disappear week to week. - How can shippers prepare for supply chain peak season volatility?
The best approach is to build agility into transportation logistics. Secure a mix of asset-based carriers and broker partners, book recurring lanes two to three weeks in advance, add buffer inventory near key markets, and use real-time tracking and predictive analytics to adjust tenders quickly. - What strategies reduce risk in transportation logistics during 2025 industry challenges?
Shippers can reduce exposure by diversifying carrier relationships, expanding mode options such as intermodal or off-peak schedules, staging buffer capacity for tariff-sensitive lanes, and leveraging technology for visibility. Those who plan dynamically will protect both service and budget.
