Weekly Freight Report: June 26, 2026

Ocean rates are the story this week. Spot rates out of Asia have climbed as much as 192% since late February, an early peak season is pulling freight forward, and vessels are booked solid into July. The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen, but a full shipping recovery is still months out.

Washington kept moving too. A new executive order tightens customs requirements and raises the cost of getting an entry wrong, CBP locked in tougher processing for low-value shipments, and Commerce opened a narrow path for Canada and Mexico metal producers to cut their steel and aluminum tariffs in half.

From rate pressure to record-keeping, this week’s moves land straight on your landed cost. Dive into the full update to see what’s driving rates, tightening the rules, and reshaping how you plan freight this summer.

Ocean Shipping Recovery Still a Ways Off Despite US-Iran Ceasefire

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but ocean networks are not expected to fully recover until mid-September 2026, according to Xeneta. Spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast have climbed 192% since late February, with East Coast rates up 158% over the same stretch. Xeneta expects rates to keep rising for at least another four weeks before the market peaks, with vessels full on Asia trades for weeks in advance. There is some relief in sight: marine bunker fuel and oil prices dropped around 20% in mid-June, which should ease fuel surcharges even as base rates stay elevated.

Early Peak Season Pushes Container Rates Higher

An early peak season is driving container rates up as shippers frontload orders ahead of fuel surcharges, tariff changes, and July manufacturer price hikes. Transpacific rates to the US West Coast rose 19% to more than $5,700 per FEU, while transatlantic rates to the East Coast climbed 13% to $7,400 per FEU. Spot rates have already passed last year’s peak season high. C.H. Robinson warned the market will likely get worse for shippers before it improves, noting that peak season has started early and is shrinking the window to secure preferred sailings.

Asia-US Spot Rate Surge Continues as Retail Restocking Enters the Mix

The Asia to US spot rate climb is picking up a new driver: retail restocking. The US retail inventories-to-sales ratio fell in April to its lowest level in more than three years, a signal that retailers are running thin and now need to refill. With most upcoming vessels overbooked, both traditional and expedited LTL carriers are chasing containerized freight as transpacific imports rise. The open question is how much momentum the frontloading push has left before demand cools.

Steel and Aluminum Makers Face a Records Gauntlet for New Tariff Exemptions

Commerce opened a path for Canada and Mexico steel and aluminum producers to cut the current 50% Section 232 tariff to 25%, but only if they commit to building or expanding primary metal production in the US. Qualifying means committing to specific capacity projects, submitting certified documentation, and meeting milestones the Commerce Department sets and monitors. Producers must maintain end-to-end traceability that ties every shipment back to approved projects, with records backed by their own accounting books. If Commerce decides a supplier has fallen short, it can revoke the reduced rate and require full payment.

Trump Administration Tightens Customs Requirements for Importers

A new executive order tightens customs requirements and raises penalties for violations. It targets common tariff-avoidance practices, including foreign suppliers acting as the importer of record, US shell companies with few assets, and changes to classification, valuation, or country of origin meant to reduce duties. Importers must now provide detailed information on their ownership, operations, and supply chains, and maintain good standing with CBP to keep shipping. The order also caps customs penalty reductions at 50% of the original amount, a sharp change from a prior era when penalties were often mitigated to far smaller sums.

CBP Modernizes Low-Value Shipment Processing

CBP issued new rules that modernize how it processes low-value shipments, reinforcing the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment that took effect August 29, 2025. The rules apply consistent enforcement across every mode of entry and keep duty-free de minimis indefinitely suspended for imports valued at $800 or less. Most non-postal low-value shipments must now be formally entered through CBP’s ACE system, and starting February 28, 2026, postal shipments move to an ad valorem duty method. For shippers, low value no longer means low compliance.

US Economy Expanded at 2.1% Pace in Q1

The US economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter, an upward revision from 1.6% and a rebound from just 0.5% in late 2025, when the 43-day government shutdown weighed on output. Business investment surged 10.6%, likely tied to the AI buildout, while consumer spending weakened as higher gasoline prices from the Iran conflict pinched households. The first read on second-quarter growth is due July 30. Steady growth supports freight demand, but soft consumer spending is worth watching as you plan volumes into the back half of the year.

Weekly Freight Report: June 26, 2026

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